Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 21.416164 22.579511 23.800664 25.182993 26.710400 28.353578 30.264489
2026-01-04 19.793252 21.422054 23.213293 25.347426 27.845472 30.708828 34.287363
2026-01-11 18.886637 20.797284 22.965239 25.641873 28.908443 32.836819 38.036578
2026-01-18 18.060605 20.150277 22.579029 25.663053 29.556517 34.431578 41.217886
2026-01-25 17.207652 19.389826 21.973002 25.325580 29.673905 35.301614 43.478659
2026-02-01 16.459199 18.698461 21.389844 24.947844 29.670997 35.964546 45.472470
2026-02-08 15.756664 18.019732 20.773852 24.470968 29.475959 36.314708 47.009714
2026-02-15 15.292851 17.609530 20.465571 24.361622 29.747305 37.310041 49.603637
2026-02-22 15.069748 17.485709 20.507663 24.706109 30.651884 39.275550 53.972924
2026-03-01 14.614700 17.044030 20.112309 24.428169 30.642633 39.862820 56.124191
2026-03-08 14.014366 16.392934 19.414395 23.695883 29.922906 39.290697 56.169258
2026-03-15 13.614292 15.987639 19.025320 23.372074 29.779189 39.600358 57.824999
2026-03-22 13.499351 15.963285 19.159564 23.814364 30.845063 42.004811 63.920335
2026-03-29 13.284061 15.798711 19.097200 23.972033 31.489652 43.791073 69.224455
2026-04-05 13.122980 15.697675 19.113304 24.238300 32.315368 45.970218 75.870389
2026-04-12 12.890303 15.490383 18.970955 24.257625 32.739152 47.474642 81.397753
2026-04-19 12.566460 15.148195 18.625424 23.951337 32.601641 47.921759 84.497330
2026-04-26 12.249269 14.805720 18.267293 23.608190 32.377698 48.178404 87.184324
2026-05-03 11.920295 14.438254 17.861860 23.174469 31.972504 48.043101 88.810268
2026-05-10 11.711048 14.230413 17.677830 23.074938 32.133030 49.040517 93.868643
2026-05-17 11.636649 14.206810 17.756925 23.388401 33.031660 51.639512 104.598105
2026-05-24 11.400224 13.949822 17.487569 23.135516 32.903210 52.068145 108.669657
2026-05-31 11.053761 13.530949 16.970804 22.468308 31.991508 50.729060 106.418692